1 - Introduction:

Trends in population growth hold high importance in many sectors of a country and the same is true for collections of countries be it the UN, EU or AUKUS. Throughout the world people representing sectors such as Energy, Health Care and Financials consider trends in population to be an important part of many decisions that are made be it within politics or private for-profit companies. Gender issues, immigration and fertility rates are also often at the forefront of discussions within the Western World.

Regarding the above points it stands to reason that population predictions are a valuable reference for governments and companies. One of the methods used to create these predictions is to look to the past to track population changes over time and how events like wars, famine or advancements may have impacted the growth or decline of a reproduction rate in an area of the world.

This assignment attempts to answer the following basic questions and show how there are similarities and differences among regions:

2 - Data Description:

The data used is from the United Nations, 2022, and can be found at World population prospects - population division. It contains Population, Fertility, Mortality and Migration estimates for 237 countries and/or regions from 1950 to 2021. Only the following selected variables listed in Table 2.1 have been used in this assignment.

Table 2.1: Variable Information.
Names Data Type Further Information
Region, subregion, country or area * Categorical Contains the following categories: World, Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America, and Oceania.
Type Categorical Contains the following information: World and Region
Year Numerical Contains years from 1950 to 2021
Total Population, as of 1 January (thousands) Numerical Contains the population number in Thousands as of January
Male Population, as of 1 July (thousands) Numerical Contains the Male Population in July in thousands
Female Population, as of 1 July (thousands) Numerical Contains the Female Population in July in thousands
Population Sex Ratio, as of 1 July (males per 100 females) Numerical Contains the Ratio males per 100 females in July

This filtered data set contains 7 variables. An outline of the variable types and information is presented above in Table 2.1. There are 504 observations in this filtered data set which contain population values for each year for Global and the Regions only.

3 - World and Continent Population Changes:

3.1 Relative Changes in Population:

Table 3.1 shows the population (in thousands) for the World and the Regions in 1950 and 2021 and the Relative Population Change between these two years as a percentage.

Table 3.1: Relative Population Change of the World and Region populations from 1950 to 2021.
Region, subregion, country or area * Type 1950 2021 Relative Difference (%)
World World 2477675 7876932 218
Africa Region 225120 1377285 512
Asia Region 1365953 4680790 243
Europe Region 547304 745853 36
Latin America And The Caribbean Region 166137 654148 294
Northern America Region 160754 374641 133
Oceania Region 12406 44215 256

From Table 3.1 the Worlds Relative Population Change between 1950 and 2021 is 218%. The table also indicates that all regions have had an increase too. The region with the greatest population change is Africa with an increase of 512%. Europe is the lowest region with an increase of 36%.

3.2 World Population Growth between 1950 and 2021:

Figure 3.1 shows the World population from 1950 to 2021. In blue is the population values at each year, while in orange is a linear regression line for this data.

Figure 3.1: The World Population in January (measured in thousands) from 1950 to 2021.

In Figure 3.1 the World Population has a steady increase from 1950 to 2021. This increase is linear, with the population values being slightly above the regression line in the 1950s and from 2010 onwards.

3.3 Population Growth in the Regions from 1950 to 2021:

Figure 3.2 shows the population numbers in thousands in the regions from 1950 to 2021. All regions have a linear regression fitted to their data in black. Each region has a different y-axis due to their varied population sizes.

Figure 3.2: The Region Populations in January (measured in thousands) from 1950 to 2021.

An increase in population across all regions is observed in Figure 3.2, however the following further observations are also seen:

  • Africa - the population does not follow a linear regression line and is growing at a much faster rate than all other regions.
  • Asia - the population follows a linear regression from 1960 with an increased growth rate before this.
  • Europe - does not follow a linear regression. From the 1990s a halt in growth occurs until the late 2000’s when a small rate of increase in population occurs.
  • Latin American and the Caribbean - the population follows a linear regression except in the early 1950s where the population is higher than the linear regression.
  • Northern America - the population follows a linear regression but with a slight deviation from this line in the late 1980s to the early 1990s.
  • Oceania - does not follow the linear regression line.

Further analysis of the data for Africa, Europe and Oceania was not conducted to determine their actual regression type but could be an extension beyond this assignment.

4 - Changes in Sex Proportions Across the Continents and World:

Table 4.1: Male and Female Differences Across the Regions
Region Avg_Male_Pop_Thousands Avg_Female_Pop_Thousands Males_Per_100_Female
Africa 320591 322854 99
Asia 1517737 1459634 104
Europe 327379 357513 91
Latin America And The Caribbean 202712 205694 99
Northern America 132116 136068 97
Oceania 13200 12995 102
World 2513735 2494758 101

Table 4.1 shows the average of the population of the sexes (in thousands) across multiple continents and the World.

Listed is both the raw numbers of Male and Female in 1000s as well as the ratio of Male to Female in a magnitude of Males to 100 Females. Within this data set is 6 columns. Missing above is the ‘Year’ column. There are 504 records in this data set. Each row accounts for a single years’ measurement for the associated region.

Table 4.2: Summary Statistics
Variable N Mean Std. Dev. Min Pctl. 25 Pctl. 75 Max
Male_Pop_Thousands 432 418956 553459 6422 113406 355779 2389589
Female_Pop_Thousands 432 415793 529756 6155 115931 382338 2304987
Sex_Ratio 432 99 4.1 87 97 102 105

Table 4.2 is the summary statistics of the listed variables with the ‘World’ statistics removed. Inferring from this table, the smallest region with a minimum population of ~ 13,000,000 and the largest region with a maximum population of ~ 4,500,000,000.

4.1 - Changes Across the World:

Figure 4.1 shows the World’s sexes totals from 1950 to 2021.

Figure 4.2 shows the ratio of males to 100 females. A value of 100 shows an exact match of the sexes within the population.

The chart shows an almost a linear increase of males:females until a peak of 101.307:100 in 2015. There is flat areas from 1959 - 1962, 1982 - 1986 along a near constant increase of males:females.

4.2 - Changes Within the Continents:

Figure 4.3 has 6 charts showing the population growth and split of genders.

  • Africa, Europe, and Oceania seem to be holding a constant difference.
  • Asia is the only region with males growing ahead of females.
  • Northern America and Latin America both have females growing ahead of males.

Figure 4.4 is the combined ratios of males to 100 females. Colour coded by each region.

  • Africa: Stays mostly constant over time.
  • Asia: Stays mostly constant over time.
  • Europe: An upwards trend seeming to taper off recently.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Linear, downwards trend.
  • Northern America: A large dip until 1983 at which point the trend reverses.
  • Oceania: A gentle, downwards trend.

5 - Conclusion:

Global populations from 1950 to 2021 have increased by 218% as shown in Table 1.2. Figure 1.1 also shows this increase has been linear except in the 1950’s and recently from about 2010 onwards where the rate of increase has been faster.

Table 1.2 and Figure 1.2 show the regions have also experienced increases in population size but that their rate of increase has varied. Africa has the highest rate of increase with at 512% from 1950 to 2021, and it is non-linear. The lowest regional growth occurred in Europe which showed a relative change of only 36%. Europe also experienced a halt in growth from the early 1990s until the late 2000’s, before showing a small increase after this time. The regions of Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; and Northern America all showed similar linear increases in population over the time period. Finally, Oceania showed an increase which was not linear.

As the population grows, the ratio of male:female also changes over time. Seen in Figure 4.3, We can see that Asia, North America and Latin America are all growing apart in terms of a 1:1 ratio. Europe while growing in population still has a large gap in the ratio between men and women. This is shown in more detail in Figure 4.4.

Understanding the way that populations grow or stagnate offers valuable insights into dynamics within society and also helps aide analysts in building models for predicting future growth.

6 - References:

United Nations. (2022). World population prospects - population division. https://population.un.org/wpp/ Population Reference Bureau. (2014). Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers: https://www.prb.org/resources